The Game of Thrones Death Probability

I knew that Game of Thrones fans are crazy (including me), but never thought this craziness can have a totally different level. A PhD student has created a mathematical network of all the major characters of the seven kingdoms and stated their death probability. This sounds pretty cool to me.

“In the Game of Thrones you either win or you die.” Well this amazing series has always surprised us with its way of presenting unexpected deaths. We all had this happy realization after Ned Starks’s death. In the spirit of personally swinging the valyrian sword, Milan Janosov , a PhD candidate at the Central European University, has built a network of relationships of over 94 major characters from the last two seasons of the series.

Janosov’s Network

The source of all this data was the subtitle transcription. He prepared a map which had number of nodes, the nodes representing a character. As Janosov describes he considered the scenes as “the elementary unit of social interaction” and connection between the characters are weighted on the basis of their interactions.

The final Westeros map had 400 nodes and about 3000 edges (connections). This map tells a lot about various important characters of the series. For example, Tyrion connect Daenerys to the center of the web and here large number of characters center around King’s Landing. This is how nodes form a web where great houses, allies or opposition, comprise the core of the plot.

After assembling this complex network, Janosov decided to predict the deaths of these characters by comparing their features to the previous 61 deaths of the characters. With the help of Support Vector Machine he used algorithms for classification and analysis. He also did prepare the chart of the most likely to be lived characters and most likely to be dead ones. Tyene Sand, Bastard of Obeyrn Martell has the highest probability of dying i.e 0.95(She died in the latest episode of season 7).

Well let me tell you, being everyone’s favourite(don’t hit me for this), but Daenerys may die next with the second highest probability of 0.91. Grey Worm is likely to be third with a probability of 0.90. And the mama’s boy prince, Robin Arryn, may die with a probability of 0.90. You remember sweet, brave Podrick (Tyrion’s squire) is also likely to die soon.

Talking of who will live the longest: Tyrion Lannister with the probability of 0.52 is not likely to die that early(Cheers Tyrion Fans). Oh wait, Littlefinger has even better chances to live with the probability of 0.50.

Probabilities of Various Characters

According to this researcher, there may be improvisations in the network, but he claims that building a complete dataset and comparing the narrative characters will lead to higher accuracy.


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